Two AFC teams at the bottom of their respective divisions face off Sunday afternoon. The Bills are 37-31-1 all time against the Colts, and have won 3 of the last 4 against the Colts.
Buffalo is coming off a 20-13 loss against Houston. In week 4, they were shut out by Green Bay 22-0, and beat Tennessee 13-12 in week 5. Indianapolis is coming off a sloppy 42-34 loss to the Jets. In week 4, they lost 37-34 in overtime to the Texans, and lost 38-24 in week 5.
PlayersOnly has the Colts as 7.5 point favourites, while the O/U is set at 43.5.
What to make of the Bills, especially without Josh Allen. The Bills signed veteran journeyman Derek Anderson to shore up their QB room, but all signs point towards Nathan Peterman getting the start Sunday. Peterman did some nice things, including a touch throw for a TD on his second drive of the game last week, but Buffalo leaned heavily on the run game when he entered the game.
Houston then tied the game up with a field goal, followed by a gimme pick 6 throw from Peterman, and another interception on the next drive. LeSean McCoy had his first real good game of the season, rushing 16 times for 73 yards, including 46 yards after contact. The offensive line has actually been solid, and held up well against a really good Houston pass rush, allowing just 10 pressures.
Defensively, Buffalo might be one of the more underrated groups in the league. Jerry Hughes is hit or miss as an edge rusher, but was at his best again vs. Houston. Hughes totalled 9 pressures and 2 sacks, while Kyle Williams had a huge game as well with 6 pressures and 3 sacks. Tre’Davious White has built off his huge rookie season, allowing just 11 catches on 20 targets for 139 yards and 4 PBUs this season.
Injuries and Inactive Watch
QB Josh Allen (elbow) – out
EDGE Trent Murphy (undisclosed) – questionable
OG Vlad Ducasse (knee) – questionable
The poor Colts just can’t catch a break in the injury department. Down 2 starting OL, their #1 WR, #1 TE, and various DL and DBs, Andrew Luck still finds ways to keep the Colts competitive. Don’t get me wrong, Luck is not his former self, but has still made due with a makeshift OL and receiving corp. Luck threw for 301 yards, 4 TDs, and 3 INTs (2 were kinda a fluke) on 23/42 passing.
His receivers were also attributed 5 drops, including 3 from Chester Rogers. Rogers (4/55/1), Eric Ebron (4/71/1), and new fan favourite Marcus Johnson (2/52/1) all got open regularly against a tough Jets secondary, and made the most of their opportunities. Sadly, Johnson suffered an ankle injury and has been placed on IR, furthering the Colts issues. The return of Marlon Mack has helped the run game a bit, as he averaged over 7 YPA and had a nice 25 yard scamper. Despite their shortcomings, the offensive line has held their own. Anthony Castonzo returned at LT, and was really the weak link, which I don’t expect to continue.
The defense got little push up front, totaling just 9 pressures, and Jihad Ward really flashed off the bench. The secondary is still kind of piecework, and have given up some big plays. Malik Hooker showed his center fielder skills last week with a huge interception, which is promising moving forward.
Injuries and Inactive Watch
WR T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) – questionable
DT Margus Hunt (knee) – questionable
WR Marcus Johnson (ankle) – placed on IR
Regardless of who plays at QB for Buffalo, I don’t see them scoring over 17 or 18 points. They may move the ball a bit against a rough Indy D, but Peterman and Derek Anderson are both turnover prone, and are almost guaranteed to throw a few to the other team. Buffalo will try to lean on the run game either way, and that will shorten the game.
Andrew Luck is known for his penchant for turnovers as well, but is still one of the top 12-15 QBs in the league, even not at full health. The Bills defense is still tough, and I could see another Jerry Hughes monster game. The Colts have shown almost 0 commitment to the run game, and we doubt they will unless they get a score or 2 lead. We wouldn’t be surprised if Buffalo makes this game closer than most think either, but I don’t have the confidence to put any action on it. We still think Buffalo’s D has enough talent to slow the Colts offense down, and we think this games an easy under pick at the number it’s currently at.
Final Pick: UNDER 43.5
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