Two NFC teams who’s playoff hopes look to be over face off Sunday in the early slate.
The Packers lead the all time series 15-14, but the Falcons have won 3 straight head to head.
The Falcons dropped a disappointing 26-16 loss to the Ravens last week. In week 11, they lost 20-19 to the Cowboys, and lost 31-17 to the Saints in week 12.
The Packers lost a disappointing one as well, losing 20-17 to the Cardinals. In week 11, they lost 27-24 to the Seahawks, and lost 24-17 to the Vikings in week 12.
Bovada has the Packers as 6 point favourites with an O/U of 47.5.
The Falcons offense is potent and filled with playmakers in the passing game. Matt Ryan is among the league leaders in passing yards with 3814 yards, 25 TDs, and 5 INTs while completing 70.9% of his passes and averaging 8.3 YPA. His top target is still Julio Jones, who despite a down week against the Ravens, is still among the best in the league. He has caught 86 balls for 1323 yards and 3 TDs. Austin Hooper and Calvin Ridley have provided excellent supporting roles, going for 60/520/4 and 50/647/8 respectively. Tevin Coleman leads the team in rushing with 128 carries for 514 yards and 2 TDs.
The Falcons defense is in the bottom 5 in scoring defense, allowing 27.8 PPG. Their pass defense is near the bottom of the league, allowing 263.5 yards per game and 25 TDs through the air, and is near the bottom in sacks with just 23. Their run defense is in the bottom quarter of the league giving up130.7 yards per game and 14 TDs on the ground. The Falcons have forced just 10 turnovers this season and own a -2 turnover margin.
Injuries and Inactive Watch
LB Foye Oluokun (knee) – questionable
The Packers are now without their head coach Mike McCarthy, but this may be to the benefit of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has been great this season despite the teams struggles, passing for 3504 yards, 21 TDs, and just 1 INT while completing 61.8% of his passes and averaging 7.6 YPA. Davante Adams continues to establish himself as a top receiver with 85 catches for 1115 yards and 11 TDs this season, while Jimmy Graham has been their de facto #2 with 44 catches for 536 yards and 2 TDs. Aaron Jones leads their rushing attack with 112 carries for 642 yards and 7 TDs.
The Packers are middle of the pack in scoring defense, giving up 23.9 PPG. The Packers passing defense is top 10, allowing just 224.0 yards per game and 19 TDs through the air, and are top 3 in sacks with 38. Their run defense is below average, allowing 127.8 yards per game and 12 TDs on the ground. They have forced just 12 turnovers on the year and own an even turnover margin.
Injuries and Inactive Watch
T Bryan Bulaga (knee) – questionable
DT Mike Daniels (foot) – placed on IR
OL Byron Bell (knee) – questionable
The Falcons offense was really hampered by a strong effort by Baltimore, but don’t expect that same outcome. The Packers defense is good, not great, and the Falcons have still been one of the more efficient offenses this season. They should be able to exploit the middle of the field against the Packers weak safety group and could find success with some deep shots.
The Packers offense is still the same unit we know and love. Basic scheme and Aaron Rodgers playing backyard ball. Against a subpar secondary like the Falcons, Rodgers should have a nice day, especially if he gets any help from the run game to balance their attack. Not really sure why they went away from Aaron Jones last week, but running room should come easy against a more speed-oriented Atlanta defense. Green Bay should win here, but 6 points is too much right now with the way they are playing.
Final Pick: Atlanta (+6)
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