Two ranked ACC opponents meet in a huge Big Monday matchup as the #15 ranked Cardinals travel to Blacksburg to take on the #12 ranked Hokies. Louisville has traditionally dominated this matchup, leading the series 33-8 and winning the last 14 matchups head to head dating back to 1992.
Louisville lost their last game 79-69 to #9 North Carolina at home on Saturday. Last Saturday (1/26) they beat Pittsburgh 66-51 at home, and last Wednesday (1/30) they beat Wake Forest 82-54 on the road.
Virginia Tech smothered #23 N.C. State for a 47-24 win on the road on Saturday. Last Saturday (1/26) they beat Syracuse 78-56 at home, and last Wednesday (1/30) they beat Miami 82-70 on the road.
On the season, Louisville is 12-9-1 ATS, 6-2 ATS on the road, and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games. On the season Virginia Tech is 13-8 ATS, 8-4 ATS at home, and 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.
BetOnline has Virginia Tech as 4 point favourites with an O/U total of 137.
(18-3 overall, 12-0 at home, 7-2 in conference)
Virginia Tech averages 77.3 PPG, 32.7 RPG, 16.6 APG, 2.5 BPG, 7.2 SPG, and 11.7 TPG. As a team they shoot 49.7% from the field, 75.4% from the free throw line, and 42.2% from 3 point range. Defensively they hold teams to 60.2 PPG, 29.5 RPG, 40.0% shooting from the field, and 33.1% shooting from 3 point range. They are led by guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who averages 17.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.8 APG, 2.3 SPG, and 0.6 BPG while shooting 53.5% from the field, 78.8% from the free throw line, and 41.5% from 3 point range.
With Justin Robinson out, Ahmed Hill slots in as the #2 option, and he is averaging 13.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, and 0.7 SPG while shooting 46.1/86.1/42.0. Forward Kerry Blackshear contributes 12.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.0 APG, 0.5 SPG, and 1.0 BPG. Ty Outlaw (7.8 PPG/4.9 RPG/47.9% from 3), Isaiah Wilkins (4.9 PPG/2.2 RPG/43.8% from 3), and Wabissa Bede (3.7 PPG/2.0 APG/1.0 SPG) figure to play big minutes, while rarely used Jonathan Kabongo and Brendan Palmer may hear their number called as well.
Key Injuries
G Justin Robinson (foot) – out
F Kerry Blackshear (arm) – probable
F P.J. Horne (undisclosed) – out
(16-6 overall, 4-4 on the road, 7-2 in conference)
Louisville averages 79.1 PPG, 38.0 RPG, 14.1 APG, 3.1 BPG, 5.1 SPG, and 12.4 TPG. As a team they shoot 45.6% from the field, 76.2% from the free throw line, and 35.6% from 3 point range. Defensively they hold teams to 68.1 PPG, 33.7 RPG, 41.3% shooting from the field, and 32.3% shooting from 3 point range. They are led by forward Jordan Nwora who averages 17.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.6 APG, and 1.0 SPG while shooting 47.9% from the field, 73.7% from the free throw line, and 40.2% from 3 point range.
Dwayne Sutton supplements him with 10.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.9 APG, and 1.1 SPG while shooting 46.6/75.0/37.8. Christen Cunningham leads the backcourt with 10.4 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 4.6 APG, and 37.7% shooting from 3. Steven Enoch (9.3 PPG/5.3 RPG/0.7 BPG), Malik Williams (8.1 PPG/5.3 RPG/1.5 BPG), Ryan McMahon (7.5 PPG/1.2 RPG/2.0 APG), and Darius Perry (6.0 PPG/1.2 RPG/1.7 APG) contribute as well.
If Virginia Tech were at full strength this game wouldn’t be in question, but without their lead assist man in Justin Robinson and the health of lone big man Kerry Blackshear in question, their lack of depth is going to play a big role in this one. Louisville has a clear advantage in the paint, as most teams do against VT, with Kerry Blackshear being the lone true big man who has played significant minutes for the Hokies, while Louisville can attack the middle with a mixture of Nwora, Sutton, Enoch, and Williams.
The Hokies thrive on the defensive end however, and are well coached to force opportunistic turnovers to hide their size deficiencies. Expect Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Ahmed Hill to shoulder the load offensively for the Hokies, as they are more than capable of doing, as well as mixing in great shooting from the likes of Outlaw and Wilkins, who shoot the ball great at home. If Blackshear is out, this game is very tough to get a bead on due to the size advantage and the fact VT would be playing a 5 guard lineup most of the game. However, if Blackshear is in, which we’re hearing is probable, feel comfortable laying the points with a very well rounded Hokies team.
Final Pick: Virginia Tech Hokies (-4)
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