Two NFC North rivals go at it Sunday in the early slate as the Lions try to keep pace in the division. The Bears lead the all time series 97-74-5, but the Lions have won 3 straight dating back to 2016.
The Lions are coming off a disappointing 24-9 loss to the Vikings in which Stafford was sacked 10 times. In week 7, the Lions beat the Dolphins 32-21, and lost 28-14 to the Seahawks in week 8.
The Bears are coming off a 41-9 victory over the Bills that saw them score 2 defensive TDs. In week 7, the Bears lost 38-31 to the Patriots, and handled the Jets 24-10 in week 8.
Bovada have the lookahead line as (-5) in favour of the Bears.
The Lions have been one of the more frustrating teams this season. Every time it looks like they have it figured out and start to play with some consistency, they lay an egg the next week. Matt Stafford has been reined in a bit, but has played fairly well outside of last weeks debacle. Stafford has thrown for 2111 yards averaging 7.3 yards per attempt, and owns a 14-6 TD to INT ratio. After trading away Golden Tate, the Lions hope that Kenny Golladay can step up to ease the loss. Golladay has 33 catches for 523 yards and 3 TDs on the season, while his counterpart Marvin Jones Jr. has 32 catches for 453 yards and 5 TDs. Kerryon Johnson has given the Lions their first semblance of a running game in years, and has been impressive, averaging 5.7 yards per carry on his way to 89 carries for 503 yards and a TD.
The Lions pass defense surprisingly ranks 4th in the league in yards per game at 214.6, but have allowed 16 TDs which is tied for 9th worst. Their run defense ranks 3rd worst at 142.2 yards allowed per game, and have given up 6 TDs on the ground. Detroit has just 3 interceptions on the year, but have recovered 5 fumbles. They rank 5th in sacks with 24.
Injuries and Inactive Watch
G T.J. Lang (concussion) – questionable
Mitchell Trubisky’s numbers are a bit of an anomaly right now, as his box score stats greatly outweigh his on field performance. Granted, his running ability provides another dimension that a lot of NFL offenses don’t feature, but he has repeatedly missed open receivers and had some interception luck on balls that should have been picked but were dropped by the defenders. Trubisky has thrown for 1949 yards and owns a 16-7 TD to INT ratio, while averaging 7.5 yards per attempt. He has also found the endzone twice on the ground to go along with 38 carries for 302 yards. The two headed attack of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen has shown their ability to keep defenses off balance in their interchangeability. Howard has 126 carries for 439 yards and 5 TDs on the ground, while Cohen has 49 carries for 229 yards and a TD. Howard also has 11 catches for 87 yards while Cohen has 31 catches for 406 yards and 3 TDs. Taylor Gabriel has 37 catches for 426 yards and 2 TDs, while Trey Burton has 29 catches for 371 yards and 5 TDs.
Chicago’s pass defense ranks 12th in the league allowing 236.5 yards per game, but have allowed 15 TDs. Chicago’s run defense ranks near the top of the league allowing just 84.5 yards per game, and have given up just 1 TD on the ground, best in the league. The Bears rank 2nd in the NFL with 14 interceptions, and have recovered 7 fumbles. They are also tied for 5th with 24 sacks.
Injuries and Inactive Watch
EDGE Khalil Mack (ankle) – missed Sunday. Questionable
WR Allen Robinson (groin) – missed Sunday. Questionable
As the Vikings did last week, we expect the Bears to distance themselves from the Lions in the division here. The Lions just don’t seem to be the same explosive offense they have been in years past where they ask Stafford to drop back 40-50 times and sling it. Running the ball is not going to be an option, but that doesn’t mean the Lions won’t attempt to stay balanced. The Bears are among the best in the league at forcing turnovers, and I could definitely see them racking a few up here.
Trubisky is nothing special, but Matt Nagy does a fantastic job of dialing up open looks for him. The Lions secondary has playmakers, and could find a way to keep him under wraps. The Lions have struggled to stop the run, and if the Bears jump out to a lead, we expect them to grind Howard and Cohen to a win. We don’t see the Lions keeping up with them either way, and we will give you 5 points on the road against a stellar defense and versatile run game.
Final Pick: Bears (-5)
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