Two AFC playoff teams from a season ago face off in a rematch of the AFC divisional round. The Jaguars lead the all time series 12-11, and have won the last 2 including a 45-42 win in the playoffs a season ago.
The Steelers are coming off a 52-21 drubbing of the Carolina Panthers on Thursday night. In week 8, they beat the Browns 33-18, and beat the Ravens 23-16 in week 9.
The Jaguars lost 26-29 to the Colts this past week following their bye. In week 7, they lost to the Texans 20-7, and lost 24-18 in week 8 to the Eagles in London.
Bovada has the opening line as -3.5 in favour of the Steelers.
The Steelers are clicking at the right time. After a slow start to the season, they have won 5 straight. Ben Roethlisberger has been slinging it, and is now at 2888 yards on the season to go along with 21 TDs and 7 INTs. He’s averaging 7.8 yards per attempt and completing 66.1% of his passes on the year as he’s spread it around nicely and still loves to push the ball down the field. JuJu Smith-Schuster (56 catches, 762 yards, 3 TDs) and Antonio Brown (57 catches 690 yards, 10 TDs) are the top 2 targets on the year, and running back James Conner has caught 39 balls for 387 yards and a TD as well. Conner has been special on the ground, rushing 165 times for 772 yards and 10 TDs.
The Steelers defense hasn’t been great over the span of the season, but is markedly improved from the beginning of the year. They are still middle of the pack in passing yards allowed at 245.3 yards per game, and have allowed 19 passing TDs this season. They are among the best in defending the run allowing just 90.8 yards per game, and allowed 6 TDs on the ground. They are average in terms of turning the ball over, picking off 6 passes and recovering 5 fumbles, and near the top of the league with 31 sacks.
Injuries and Inactive Watch
No injuries reported
The Jaguars may be on the outside looking in this season after being so dominant a season ago. Blake Bortles is coming off one of his best games of the year, but it wasn’t enough against the Colts. Bortles has now thrown for 2341 yards on the year, but just 12 TDs to go along with 8 INTs while averaging 7.1 yards per attempt and completing 61.3% of his passes. Leonard Fournette returned from injury but wasn’t as much of a factor as some thought, averaging just 2.2 yards per attempt on the ground for 53 yards and a TD. Fournette also caught 5 balls for 56 yards and a TD. T.J. Yeldon is the teams leading receiver with 42 catches for 397 yards and 4 TDs, while Dede Westbrook has 38 catches for 465 yards and 3 TDs.
The defense is no where near as dominant as it was a season ago, but is still a premiere unit. They are allowing 200.6 yards per game through the air which leads the league, and have given up 12 passing TDs. Their run defense is average, allowing 118.6 yards per game and 7 TDs on the year. They have struggled to generate turnovers, picking off just 5 passes and recovering 3 fumbles, and aren’t getting to the passer as well as they were last year as evidenced in their 19 sacks.
Injuries and Inactive Watch
T Ereck Flowers (knee) – questionable
C Brandon Linder (knee) – questionable
The Steelers are playing some phenomenal football right now and the Jags are struggling. Andrew Luck showed they aren’t invincible however, and if you can recall last years playoff matchup, Roethlisberger absolutely torched them for 469 yards and 5 TDs. The Steelers won’t be afraid to test them down the field and their offensive line is good enough to neutralize the Jags pass rush, and if the Steelers get a lead then they should be able to control the clock with James Conner.
Jacksonville is going to try to establish their ground game early and often, and the Steelers run D is rock solid. If this turns into a dropback game for Blake Bortles, I don’t trust him enough to throw 40 times and dice up a defense. I’m rolling with the Steelers to cover here, although I think this line gets bigger as the week goes along.
Final Pick: Steelers (-3.5)
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