A NFC East rivalry kicks off on Turkey Day in a game with huge implications towards deciding the division. The Cowboys lead the all time series 70-43-2, but the Redskins won the previous matchup this season 20-17.
The Redskins are coming off a brutal 23-21 loss in which they lost their starting quarterback. In week 9, they lost 38-14 to the Atlanta Falcons, and in week 10 they beat the Buccaneers 16-3.
The Cowboys are coming off a game winning field goal to beat the Falcons 22-19. In week 9, the Cowboys lost to the Titans 28-14, and beat the Eagles 27-20 in week 10.
Bovada has the Cowboys as 5.5 point favourites at home, and an O/U has not been posted yet
The Redskins have had a lot of terrible injury luck this year, with almost their entire offensive line on IR or week to week, and now they have to deal with the loss of Alex Smith, who broke his leg Sunday against the Texans. Smith definitely had his limitations as a passer, but he does a fantastic job of taking care of the ball and threatening defenses with his legs. His replacement, Colt McCoy, offers some of this, but might be even more limited as a pure thrower. The Redskins receiving game has been very much by committee. Jordan Reed leads the team with 44 receptions, and has 462 yards and 2 TDs as well. Chris Thompson (28/209/1), Maurice Harris (27/291/0), and Josh Doctson (26/268/2) all provide solid outlets as well. Adrian Peterson is experiencing somewhat of a career renaissance, and has rushed 171 times for 723 yards and 6 TDs.
The Redskins defense is still a very solid unit, allowing just 19.8 PPG. They are a bit susceptible to the pass, ranking in the bottom half of the league with 261.2 yards per game allowed and have given up 16 TDs. Washington’s run defense is top 10, allowing just 95.7 yards per game and 7 TDs. Washington has done a very nice job of forcing turnovers, forcing 11 interceptions and recovering 10 fumbles on the year, and are top 10 in sacks with 28.
Injuries and Inactive Watch
QB Alex Smith (leg) – out for season
WR Jamison Crowder (ankle) – questionable
T Trent Williams (finger) – questionable
The Cowboys are back to their winning formula. They are running the ball effectively and efficiently and throwing when they need to. Dak Prescott on the season has thrown for 2130 yards, 11 TDs, and 5 INTs. He is averaging 7 yards per attempt and completing 64.6% of his passes. Ezekiel Elliott is the #2 rusher in the NFL currently, rushing 191 times for 953 yards and 5 TDs. Zeke has also been a threat as a receiver, catching 42 balls for 341 yards and 2 TDs. Cole Beasley has been the teams leading receiver with 45 catches, 454 yards, and 2 TDs, while Amari Cooper has given the team a threat to take pressure of the other receivers.
The Cowboys defense has to be talked about as a top unit. They are top 5 in points allowed at 19 PPG, and are allowing just 236.1 yards per game and 13 TDs through the air. The Cowboys run defense is also top 5 in terms of yards per game, allowing just 95 YPG, and have given up 6 rushing TDs. For all their defensive success, they lack in forcing turnovers, having just 4 interceptions and 6 recovered fumbles, but are top 10 in sacks with 28.
Injuries and Inactive Watch
EDGE Taco Charlton (shoulder) – questionable
DL David Irving (ankle) – questionable
LB Sean Lee (hamstring) – doubtful
This should be a grind it out game. With the Redskins on their 2nd quarterback and the Cowboys mostly incapable of throwing the ball, this should be an emotional division game that allows the winner to control their own playoff destiny. It’s a bit hard to predict what the Redskins offense will look like with Colt McCoy at the helm, but the Cowboys defense will make life hard regardless. The Redskins O line is banged up, and the Dallas pass rush is a top unit. The Redskins also don’t have any receivers that can really threaten a defense, and the Cowboys coverage is above average as well.
The Cowboys offense will need to be a bit more creative in how they use Zeke Elliott in this one. The Redskins want you to try to run up the middle on their big bruisers, and the Cowboys need to get him on the edge and isolated on screens and dump offs. The Redskins cornerbacks aren’t real lockdown threats either, and Dak could find some success on 3rd downs if he can make the correct reads and get the ball out with anticipation. With the questions around the Redskins, I’m going to take the proven commodity in the Cowboys, who are 30-19 all time on Thanksgiving, to cover here and make another move towards winning the NFC East.
Final Pick: Cowboys (-5.5)
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