Sunday pits 2 AFC West rivals against each other for another chapter in a storied rivalry.
The Chiefs lead the all time series 63-53-2, and have won 8 of the last 10 in the series.
Kansas City fell short in the game of the year (to date) before their week 12 bye week, a 54-51 loss to the Rams. In week 9, they beat the Browns 37-21, and beat the Cardinals 26-14 in week 10.
The Raiders were handled by the Ravens last week 34-17. In week 10, they lost to the Chargers 25-17, and they beat the Cardinals 23-21 in week 11.
BetOnline has the Chiefs as 15.5 point favourites with an O/U of 56.
The Kansas City offense is still the most explosive in the league, and can attack defenses in a multitude of ways. Pat Mahomes has a legitimate claim to the MVP award, throwing for 3628 yards, 37 TDs and 10 INTs on the year while completing 67.5% of his passes and averaging 9.3 YPA. Tyreek Hill might be the fastest human in football, and has 65 catches for 1106 yards and 11 TDs on the year. Tight end Travis Kelce has recorded 67 catches for 915 yards and 7 TDs, while Kareem Hunt has caught 26 balls for 378 yards and 7 TDs out of the backfield. Hunt leads the team in rushing as well with 824 yards and 7 TDs on the ground on 181 carries.
The Chiefs are in the bottom quarter of the league in scoring defense, allowing 26.7 PPG. The Chiefs are dead last in passing defense, allowing 297.2 yards per game and 20 TDs on the year, but are top 5 in sacks with 36. They are in the bottom half of the league in run defense, allowing 117.5 yards per game and 13 TDs on the ground. The Chiefs have forced 17 turnovers, and own a +4 turnover margin.
Injuries and Inactive Watch
WR Sammy Watkins (foot) – questionable
C Mitch Morse (concussion) – questionable
S Eric Berry (foot) – questionable
The Raiders are struggling mightily under Jon Gruden, averaging under 20 points per game offensively. Their 2 wins have come in a shootout against a Hue Jackson led Browns team and a lowly Cardinals team. Derek Carr has thrown for 2827 yards, 13 TDs and 8 INTs on the year while completing 68.5% of his passes and averaging 7.4 YPA. His skill positions have been a revolving door, but Jared Cook leads the team in receiving yards (609) and receiving TDs (5) on 47 receptions. Running back Jalen Richard leads the team in receptions with 53 which have gone for 447 yards, good for 2nd on the team. Doug Martin has assumed the lead back role, rushing 87 times on the season for 384 yards and 1 TD, while Richard has 30 carries for 119 yards.
Injuries and Inactive Watch
CB Leon Hall (back) – questionable
WR Martavis Bryant (knee) – out
WR Jordy Nelson (knee) – questionable
The Raiders are in the bottom 3 in scoring defense, allowing 29.7 PPG. The Raiders are average in defending the pass, allowing 238.6 yards per game and 25 TDs through the air, but are dead last in sacks with 10. They are also last in rushing defense, allowing 151.4 yards per game and 10 TDs on the ground. Oakland has forced just 11 turnovers on the year, and own a -3 turnover differential.
Coming off an emotional loss and their bye week, the Chiefs have to be looking at the Raiders as a “get back on track” type of opponent. We know how explosive this offense is, and the Raiders offer little in the way of shutting down offenses. Their pass rush is next to non-existent, and they can be gashed in the run game. Don’t expect the Chiefs to settle on the run however, as their pass game is too deadly to be ignored on the playsheet.
Oakland’s offense has been close to dreadful, but the good news is the Chiefs defense has some real issues as well. The Raiders should be able to move the ball with ease, and find exploitable matchups in the secondary as well as in the redzone. Andy Reid is nearly unstoppable coming out of the bye week in his career, and a win will never be in doubt here. However, 15.5 points is too rich for any matchup in todays NFL, especially for a road favorite. Take the Raiders here for a small play, with a slight lean to the under as well.
Final Pick: Raiders (+15.5)
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