An AFC South matchup that is vital for the Texans playoff seeding kicks off Sunday. The Texans lead the all time series 20-13, and they won the earlier matchup this season 20-7.
The Jaguars defeated the Dolphins 17-7 to effectively knock them out of the playoffs. In week 14, they lost 30-9 to the Titans, and lost 16-13 to the Redskins in week 15.
The Texans lost 32-30 to the Eagles on a last second field goal on Sunday. In week 14, they lost 24-21 to the Colts, and beat the Jets 29-22 in week 15.
BetOnline has the Texans as 8.5 point favourites with an O/U total of 40.5.
The Jaguars offense has really been a struggle, especially at the quarterback position. Their passing offense is ranked 26th in the league with 3020 total passing yards, 15 TDs, and 12 INTs. Dede Westbrook has been their most effective receiver, totaling 707 yards and 5 TDs on 63 receptions. T.J. Yeldon (55/487/4) and Donte Moncrief (46/647/3) are featured as well. Leonard Fournette leads the team in rushing with 133 carries for 439 yards and 5 TDs while Yeldon has 414 yards and a TD on 104 carries.
The Jaguars scoring defense ranks 5th, allowing 19.7 PPG. Their pass defense ranks 2nd, allowing just 193.7 yards per game and 17 TDs through the air while their pass rush ranks near the bottom of the league with 31 sacks. Their rushing defense ranks just below average allowing 115.7 yards per game and 14 TDs on the ground.
The Texans offense is very reliant on the play of Deshaun Watson, and he has delivered. Watson has thrown for 3931 yards, 26 TDs and 9 INTs while completing 68.1% of his passes and averaging 8.4 YPA. DeAndre Hopkins has been dominant at the receiver position, catching 103 balls for 1425 yards and 11 TDs. The rest of their receiving production has really been a hodgepodge of Jordan Thomas, DeAndre Carter, Lamar Miller, and Ryan Griffin. Miller leads the team in rushing with 193 carries for 917 yards and 4 TDs, while Alfred Blue (147/487/2) and Deshaun Watson (86/485/4) are heavily involved as well.
The Texans scoring defense ranks 7th allowing 20.9 PPG. Their passing defense ranks near the bottom of the league, allowing 271.9 YPG and 28 TDs through the air while their pass rush ranks just outside the top 10 with 40 sacks. Their run defense ranks top 5, allowing just 86.2 YPG and 8 TDs on the ground.
No matter who is at quarterback for the Jaguars, their offense is pretty bad. Their over reliance on the run game coupled with bad quarterback play is a recipe for disaster against a Houston Texans front that has the potential to wreak havoc. Leonard Fournette is going to find tough sledding against a defensive line that features Jadeveon Clowney, J.J. Watt, and D.J. Reader. In the back end, the Jaguars lack wide receivers who can consistently make plays, and the Texans should be in a good position to force a few turnovers.
The Texans offense is really a two man show between Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins. The Jaguars have the recipe to slow them down with excellent corner play. However, the Texans had some promising showings from other receivers in the past few weeks including DeAndre Carter and Vyncint Smith. Their offensive line is dreadful, but Watson is a master at extending plays and allowing his receivers to find openings in coverage. The Texans should walk out of here with an easy win and positive momentum built for the postseason.
Final Pick: Houston (-8.5)
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