Two AFC teams trending in different directions face off Sunday in the Mile High City. The Broncos lead the all time series 4-2, and have won the last 2 matchups dating back to 2013.
Houston is riding a 5 game winning streak and is coming off a 42-23 win against the Dolphins. In week 6, the Texans defeated the Bills 20-13, and beat the Jags 20-7 in week 7.
The Broncos have lost 5 of their last 6, including a 30-23 loss last week in Kansas City. In week 6, the Broncos were outlasted 23-20 by the Rams, and smoked the Cardinals 45-10 in week 7.
Bovada has the game as a pick’em, with the O/U set at 46.
The Texans are a team that is definitely trending upward. Deshaun Watson played his best game this season against Miami on an efficient 16/20 passing, throwing for 239 yards and 5 touchdowns. Although the Dolphins defensive front is nothing special, the Texans kept Watson clean throughout the game, allowing just 1 QB hit and no sacks for the first time this season. DeAndre Hopkins continues to establish himself as an elite receiver, catching 6 balls for 85 yards and 2 TDs, including a few highlight worthy catches (and one that was called back due to a penalty).
Will Fuller caught 5 balls for 124 yards and a TD, but was lost for the season due to a torn ACL. They added Demaryius Thomas at the trade deadline, and he should provide an immediate outlet for Watson on 3rd downs and in the red zone. One of the main reasons for the Texans recent success is the revitalization of the run game. Lamar Miller has 233 rushing yards and 2 TDs over the past 2 games on 40 carries. Alfred Blue has also provided a nice change of pace, rushing 22 times for 70 yards over the past 2 games.
The defense is built around the front 4, primarily edge rushers Jadeveon Clowney and J.J. Watt. They combined for 12 pressures, 2 sacks, and 3 more QB hits against the Dolphins. Whitney Mercilus also contributed 4 pressures and a sack. The coverage as a whole this season has not been great, but do feature a playmaker in Tyrann Mathieu and some nice chess pieces in Kareem Jackson and Justin Reid, while the return of Andre Hal will help out as well.
Injuries and Inactive Watch
CB Jonathan Joseph (knee)- questionable
WR Will Fuller (knee)- placed on IR
WR DeAndre Hopkins (foot)- questionable
CB Aaron Colvin (ankle)- questionable
It’s safe to say Case Keenum has not been what the Broncos had hoped when they signed him this offseason, but he is definitely an upgrade over Paxton Lynch and Trevor Siemian. He is aggressive down the field, but that does come with some turnover worthy plays. Keenum is tied for the league lead in interceptions with 10, and has thrown at least 1 in every game this season. Against the Chiefs, he was 23/34 for 262 yards, 2 TDs, and an INT.
He is also among the league leaders in sacks taken (t-5th, 22 sacks) due to a combination of his offensive line and his tendency to hold onto the ball to try to make plays. Rookie Courtland Sutton is emerging as a playmaker, catching 3 balls for 78 yards against the Chiefs. Emmanuel Sanders is still a reliable threat, and has 10 catches for 159 yards and a TD over the last 2 weeks. Undrafted rookie Phillip Lindsay continues to be a dynamic threat out of the backfield. Lindsay rushed 18 times for 95 yards and a TD last week, and also caught 3 balls for 17 yards.
Bradley Chubb continues to improve over the season, as he had 7 more pressures and a sack against the Chiefs. Von Miller was mostly neutralized as he was matched up with Mitchell Schwartz primarily, but he still found a way to get a sack. Its tough to evaluate coverage against an offense as explosive as the Chiefs, but Bradley Roby has had some stinkers over the past few weeks. He allowed 111 yards against the Chiefs on 7 catches (8 targets), including 62 after the catch.
Injuries and Inactive Watch
CB Bradley Roby (ankle) – questionable
WR DaeSean Hamilton (knee) – out
RB Royce Freeman (ankle) – questionable
EDGE Von Miller (knee) – questionable
The Texans are unquestionably playing better football right now, and I could see Deshaun Watson putting together another nice game against an up and down secondary in Denver. The Broncos have struggled to stop the run game this season, and Lamar Miller will be integral to the Texans success in this game as they cannot become one dimensional.
The Broncos pass protection has been an issue of late, especially without Jared Veldheer, which plays into the Texans hands, and they have playmakers in the backend that can take advantage of a Keenum mishap or 2. If this comes down to a one or 2 possession game, we are taking the quarterback and coach we trust more, and ultimately that is the Texans.
Final Pick: Texans
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