Valspar Championship 2019 Betting Preview

The “Florida Swing” wraps up this week in Palm Harbor, just north of Tampa, for the Valspar Championship. Players will be competing for their share of the $6.7 million purse at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club.

While the field isn’t as loaded as last week’s Players Championship, several big names are still in the tournament. Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Patrick Reed, and Sergio Garcia are all set to compete at the Valspar.

Here’s a little background about this annual tournament, along with some golfers to keep an eye on for the week.

The Innisbrook Resort is a hotel and country club that boasts a 620-room hotel, a spa, three restaurants, and most importantly, four golf courses. The PGA Tour makes its way to just one of those courses each year; the Copperhead Course, a Par 71 stretching out to about 7,340 yards in length.

Visually, the tree-lined fairways, doglegging fairways, and small greens of Copperhead have similarities to Augusta. But there are plenty of differences this course has to offer, with small greens surrounded by bunkers, along with an odd mix of five Par 3s and four Par 5s.

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There is also once again a closing stretch of holes that this course is famous for, known as the “Snakepit”. Hole Sixteen is a Par 4 with very little room for error off of the tee, with water surrounding players on both sides. Seventeen is a 215-yard Par 3, with a small green protected by a bunker and tree. Lastly on Eighteen, golfers will play uphill on a 445-yard Par 4, dodging trees to the left and sand to the right, and then facing an extreme slope on the green.

Despite early-week rain near Tampa, conditions for the tournament should be mild and dry. Even the wind will be very minor, with strong gusts playing a factor in previous tournaments.

This tournament has been in place since 2000, originally under the name “Tampa Bay Classic” and played as a late-season event. After moving to March in 2007, this tournament has undergone a number of name changes, agreeing to sponsorships with PODS, Transitions Optical, and EverBank, before Valspar signed on to become the title sponsor in September 2013.

Last year, Paul Casey came back from five shots down to shoot a 65 in the final round and win the tournament with a score of -10. Adam Hadwin impressed with a -14 to win in 2017. Other recent winners include Charl Schwartzel in 2016, Jordan Spieth in 2015, and John Senden in 2014.

This is a tournament that usually ends with an exciting, down to the wire finish. In the last 10 years, Kevin Streelman is the only winner to lead the field by more than one stroke, winning by two strokes in 2013.

Now it’s time for some golfers to keep an eye on to have big weeks in Tampa.

DJ is coming off of a week where he looked great, leading the field in strokes gained from tee to green. However, difficulties with his putter cost him a chance to win the Players Championship. This season, he’s fourth in tee-to-green, fourth in bogey avoidance, and fifth in scoring average. The only question mark is his history at this course, or lack thereof, with a missed cut in 2010 being his most recent visit. But Johnson is the best overall golfer in the field, and is someone who can dominate at any time.

Unlike Johnson, Reed has a history at this tournament, and it’s a strong one. Reed finished second last year, second in 2015, and seventh in 2016, with a scoring average of 69.625 per round over the last four years. He also comes in with solid form, making the cut in 15 consecutive appearances. It seems to be a matter of time before he finally wins the Valspar.

Bradley is a little bit of a boom-or-bust player. His tee-to-green is among the best on the Tour, resulting in a top-10 finish at WGC-Mexico and top-16 at Sawgrass last week. He also is sixth in SG: approach, as well as 12th in total driving. But the putter is his biggest weakness, which could lead to disaster. You will either see the Keegan Bradley who has shot in the 60s in six of his last 10 rounds, or the one who fails with the putter and take a nosedive down the leaderboard.

Simpson has been great with the putter, and has been playing well in general, finishing top-16 last week at Sawgrass. He’s currently 10th on the Tour in scrambling, as well as fourth in bogey avoidance. He also has a bit of good history at the Copperhead Course, finishing eighth in last year’s tournament and top-20 in five of his nine total appearances.

Jon Rahm, Jason Day, and Sergio Garcia are all among the favorites in the field. Other notable players who may have strong weeks include Jim Furyk, Lucas Glover, and Brandt Snedeker. But I think come Sunday, it’ll be Dustin Johnson who comes out on top and wins the Valspar Championship.

The first round begins Thursday morning at 7:40 AM eastern time from Palm Harbor.